FC Serpa 0–5 Estoril: Result & Stats

FC Serpa

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Estoril

André 77'

Francisco Geraldes 57'

L. Acevedo 55', 14'

Chiquinho 18'

11/21/2021

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Serpa28%

×Draw23%

Estoril49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SerpaExpected goals in this matchEstoril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.80

FC Serpa

1.31

Estoril

1.80

Estoril creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.71

creates per match

2.17

1.43

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

FC Serpa

1.71

Estoril

2.17

allows per match

FC Serpa

1.43

Estoril

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Serpa+0.00on par

Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Serpa ↓

Estoril →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Serpa or draw

51%

FC Serpa or Estoril

77%

Draw or Estoril

72%

Winning margin

FC Serpa wins by 2+

12%

Estoril wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

FC Serpa 1+ goals

73%

FC Serpa 2+ goals

38%

FC Serpa 3+ goals

14%

Estoril 1+ goals

83%

Estoril 2+ goals

54%

Estoril 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FC Serpa (draw refunded)

36%

Estoril (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Serpa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Serpa attack 1.71 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Estoril attack 2.17 + FC Serpa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Serpa scores more

28%

level

23%

Estoril scores more

49%

Estoril at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

18'

42'

46'

Volnei Feltes← L. Rosier

53'

M. P. Baptista Delgado

55'

L. Acevedo

57'

Francisco Geraldes

58'

R. Meshino← Chiquinho

59'

André← L. Acevedo

66'

David Bruno

72'

Jorge Raposo← Luiz Silva

72'

Rúben Santos← António Infante

72'

André Franco← Gamboa

77'

André

83'

José Vilão← Iaquinta

83'

Rui Óca← Tiago Floreano

89'

90+2'

Estoril

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Acevedo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marcos Borges

72'▲Jorge Raposo←▼Luiz Silva

72'▲Rúben Santos←▼António Infante

83'▲José Vilão←▼Iaquinta

83'▲Rui Óca←▼Tiago Floreano

FC Serpa substitutes

RaposoSantosVilãoÓcaDanielPetizPeta

Manager: Bruno Pinheiro

46'▲Volnei Feltes←▼L. Rosier

58'▲R. Meshino←▼Chiquinho

59'▲André←▼L. Acevedo

72'▲André Franco←▼Gamboa

Estoril substitutes

5Feltes26Meshino9André10Franco2Soria11Gomes99Leite

Match Recap: FC Serpa vs Estoril

Estoril beat FC Serpa 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 21, 2021.

Goals: L. Acevedo (14', 55'), Chiquinho (18'), Francisco Geraldes (57'), André (77').

The match was played at Campo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião in Serpa.

FC Serpa vs Estoril — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Serpa vs Estoril