Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Serpa vs CD Olivais e Moscavide — Taça de Portugal 2018

FC Serpa
FC Serpa
FT
4 – 0
CD Olivais e Moscavide
CD Olivais e Moscavide
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Serpa43%
×Draw22%
CD Olivais e Moscavide34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Serpa
1.85
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.63

FC Serpa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Serpa
1.71
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.83

allows per match

FC Serpa
1.43
CD Olivais e Moscavide
2.00

finishing

FC Serpa+0.00on par
CD Olivais e Moscavide+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Serpa ↓

CD Olivais e Moscavide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Serpa or draw
66%
FC Serpa or CD Olivais e Moscavide
78%
Draw or CD Olivais e Moscavide
57%

Winning margin

FC Serpa wins by 2+
23%
CD Olivais e Moscavide wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Serpa 1+ goals
84%
FC Serpa 2+ goals
55%
FC Serpa 3+ goals
28%
CD Olivais e Moscavide 1+ goals
80%
CD Olivais e Moscavide 2+ goals
48%
CD Olivais e Moscavide 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Serpa (draw refunded)
56%
CD Olivais e Moscavide (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Serpa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

CD Olivais e Moscavide away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Serpa attack 1.71 + CD Olivais e Moscavide defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

CD Olivais e Moscavide attack 1.83 + FC Serpa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Serpa scores more
43%
level
22%
CD Olivais e Moscavide scores more
34%

FC Serpa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Serpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: FC Serpa 4–0 CD Olivais e Moscavide

FC Serpa beat CD Olivais e Moscavide 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião in Serpa.