FC Seoul 2–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

FC Seoul

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

N. Arai 27' (OG)

P. Klimala 10' (pen)

R. Germain 90'

K. Kinoshita 90'

2/17/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 8Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Seoul51%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SeoulExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.95

FC Seoul

1.55

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

FC Seoul creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.89

creates per match

1.11

0.78

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

FC Seoul

1.89

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.11

allows per match

FC Seoul

0.78

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw

77%

FC Seoul or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

49%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+

27%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals

79%

FC Seoul 2+ goals

46%

FC Seoul 3+ goals

20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

61%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)

69%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.89 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.11 + FC Seoul defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Seoul scores more

51%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

23%

FC Seoul at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Germain

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

P. KlimalaPenalty

26'

Shunki Higashi

27'

N. AraiOwn goal

40'

Seung-mo Lee

46'

T. Yamasaki← N. Arai

60'

K. Kinoshita← M. Kato

60'

S. Nakamura← H. Kawabe

62'

Cho Young Wook

68'

T. Shichi← D. Suga

74'

Patryk Klimala

75'

L. Ruiz← Cho Young-Wook

80'

Moon Seon-Min← Song Min-Kyu

86'

M. Ohara← S. Higashi

90+7'

Anderson Oliveira← P. Klimala

90'

R. Germain

90'

K. Kinoshita↳ T. Shichi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSanfrecce

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots14

1.42Expected Goals (xG)2.54

3Corners8

15Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target7

6Off Target2

3Blocked5

9Inside Box12

2Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

368Total Passes389

282Accurate Passes324

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-1.13Goals Prevented-1.13

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2