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FC Seoul vs Melbourne Victory — AFC Champions League 2018

FC Seoul
FC Seoul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
2/18/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Seoul72%
×Draw17%
Melbourne Victory11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Seoul
2.46
Melbourne Victory
0.85

FC Seoul creates 189% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Seoul
2.10
Melbourne Victory
0.91

allows per match

FC Seoul
0.80
Melbourne Victory
2.82

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw
89%
FC Seoul or Melbourne Victory
83%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
28%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+
50%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals
91%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
70%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
44%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
57%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
21%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)
87%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 2.10 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.46

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + FC Seoul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FC Seoul scores more
72%
level
17%
Melbourne Victory scores more
11%

FC Seoul at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Seoul vs Melbourne Victory

FC Seoul beat Melbourne Victory 1-0 in AFC Champions League on February 18, 2020.

The match was played at Seoul World Cup Stadium in Seoul.