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FC Seoul vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

FC Seoul
FC Seoul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
12/10/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 6Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Seoul42%
×Draw26%
Melbourne City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Seoul
1.44
Melbourne City
1.24

FC Seoul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Seoul
1.89
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

FC Seoul
0.78
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw
68%
FC Seoul or Melbourne City
74%
Draw or Melbourne City
58%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+
20%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals
76%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
42%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
18%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
71%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
35%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)
56%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.89 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + FC Seoul defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Seoul scores more
42%
level
26%
Melbourne City scores more
32%

FC Seoul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Seoul vs Melbourne City

FC Seoul and Melbourne City drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on December 10, 2025.

The match was played at Seoul World Cup Stadium in Seoul.