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FC Seoul vs Buriram United — AFC Champions League 2018

FC Seoul
FC Seoul
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Buriram United
Buriram United
9/30/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 2Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Seoul61%
×Draw23%
Buriram United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Seoul
1.72
Buriram United
0.73

FC Seoul creates 136% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Seoul
1.89
Buriram United
0.68

allows per match

FC Seoul
0.78
Buriram United
1.55

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par
Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Buriram United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw
84%
FC Seoul or Buriram United
77%
Draw or Buriram United
39%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+
35%
Buriram United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals
82%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
51%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
25%
Buriram United 1+ goals
52%
Buriram United 2+ goals
17%
Buriram United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)
80%
Buriram United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.89 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.72

Buriram United attack 0.68 + FC Seoul defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Seoul scores more
61%
level
23%
Buriram United scores more
16%

FC Seoul at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Seoul vs Buriram United

FC Seoul beat Buriram United 3-0 in AFC Champions League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Seoul World Cup Stadium in Seoul.