FC Schweinfurt 05 4–0 Greuther Fürth II

FC Schweinfurt 05

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Greuther Fürth II

8/19/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 5Willy-Sachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0553%

×Draw22%

Greuther Fürth II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schweinfurt 05Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.27

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.96

Greuther Fürth II

1.27

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 87 away

2.29

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

2.29

Greuther Fürth II

1.33

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.20

Greuther Fürth II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

Greuther Fürth II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw

75%

FC Schweinfurt 05 or Greuther Fürth II

78%

Draw or Greuther Fürth II

47%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

31%

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

86%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

58%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

31%

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals

72%

Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals

36%

Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

68%

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 2.29 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.96

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

53%

level

22%

Greuther Fürth II scores more

25%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff