FC Schweinfurt 05 2–4 Fortuna Düsseldorf

FC Schweinfurt 05

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf

E. Shuranov 83'

M. Wintzheimer 44' (pen)

S. Appelkamp 86', 66'

F. Muslija 72'

C. Itten 68'

8/18/2025

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundSachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0515%

×Draw16%

Fortuna Düsseldorf69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schweinfurt 05Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.92

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.35

Fortuna Düsseldorf

2.92

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

3.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.00

Fortuna Düsseldorf

2.50

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

3.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw

31%

FC Schweinfurt 05 or Fortuna Düsseldorf

84%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

85%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

6%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

74%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

39%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

15%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

94%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

78%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

18%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.00 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 2.50 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

15%

level

16%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

69%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Appelkamp

Fortuna Düsseldorf · M

10.0

Match Events

13'

Cédric Itten

37'

Luka Trslic

41'

Christian Rasmussen

44'

M. WintzheimerPenalty

46'

V. Lunddal← M. Zimmermann

46'

T. Rossmann← M. Heyer

64'

Pius Krätschmer

64'

S. Muller← J. Endres

66'

S. Appelkamp↳ V. Lunddal

68'

C. Itten

70'

Manuel Wintzheimer

72'

F. Muslija↳ S. Appelkamp

74'

E. Shuranov← D. U. Obiogumu

74'

T. Latteier← L. Trslic

80'

J. Hettwer← C. Rasmussen

83'

E. Shuranov

86'

S. Appelkamp↳ F. Muslija

88'

K. Bohnlein← P. Kratschmer

88'

N. Piwernetz← D. Angleberger

88'

G. Haag← S. Appelkamp

88'

D. Schmidt← C. Itten

90+4'

Thomas Meißner

90+5'

Anouar El Azzouzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFortuna

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots25

2Corners7

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots25

4On Target11

6Off Target9

1Blocked5

6Inside Box16

5Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

312Total Passes527

246Accurate Passes456

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2