FC Schweinfurt 05 vs FC Schalke 04 — DFB Pokal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
FC Schweinfurt 0512%
FC Schalke 0474%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Schalke 04 creates 162% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over79
- Under21
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches
FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.00 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18
FC Schalke 04 attack 2.86 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 74%?"
FC Schalke 04 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 74% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small samplePossession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Schweinfurt 05 host FC Schalke 04 on Friday, 17 August 2018 at 18:45. The match is part of the DFB Pokal 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: FC Schweinfurt 05 vs FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04 beat FC Schweinfurt 05 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 17, 2018.
Goals: N. Bentaleb (24' pen), A. Jabiri (75' o.g.).
FC Schalke 04 controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 4.
The match was played at Willy-Sachs-Stadion in Schweinfurt.