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FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
8/29/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Willy-Sachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0563%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Bamberg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schweinfurt 05
2.15
Eintracht Bamberg
1.01

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
2.29
Eintracht Bamberg
0.82

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
1.20
Eintracht Bamberg
2.00

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw
83%
FC Schweinfurt 05 or Eintracht Bamberg
80%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
37%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
40%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
88%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
63%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
36%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
64%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
27%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
79%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 2.29 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
63%
level
20%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
17%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: FC Schweinfurt 05 2–1 Eintracht Bamberg

FC Schweinfurt 05 beat Eintracht Bamberg 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Willy-Sachs-Stadion in Schweinfurt.