FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Bayreuth: Result & Stats

FC Schweinfurt 05

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayreuth

2/22/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0555%

×Draw19%

Bayreuth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schweinfurt 05Expected goals in this matchBayreuth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.84

FC Schweinfurt 05

2.67

Bayreuth

1.84

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

3.67

creates per match

2.44

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

3.67

Bayreuth

2.44

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.25

Bayreuth

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

Bayreuth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw

74%

FC Schweinfurt 05 or Bayreuth

81%

Draw or Bayreuth

45%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

35%

Bayreuth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

93%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

74%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

49%

Bayreuth 1+ goals

84%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

55%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

68%

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 3.67 + Bayreuth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Bayreuth attack 2.44 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

55%

level

19%

Bayreuth scores more

26%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FC

Bayreuth

Manager: Benjamin Freund

Manager: L. Kling