FC Schweinfurt 05 4–3 1860 Rosenheim

FC Schweinfurt 05

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

1860 Rosenheim

F. Pieper 90+5', 90+1', 85', 72'

A. Keereerom 65', 39'

L. Mushkolaj 63'

11/30/2019

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 22Willy-Sachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0570%

×Draw16%

1860 Rosenheim14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schweinfurt 05Expected goals in this match1860 Rosenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.15

FC Schweinfurt 05

2.72

1860 Rosenheim

1.15

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 137% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 32 away

2.28

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

2.28

1860 Rosenheim

1.13

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.18

1860 Rosenheim

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

1860 Rosenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw

86%

FC Schweinfurt 05 or 1860 Rosenheim

84%

Draw or 1860 Rosenheim

30%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

49%

1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

93%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

75%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

50%

1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals

68%

1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals

32%

1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

83%

1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.18 · 72 matches

1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 2.28 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.72

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.13 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

70%

level

16%

1860 Rosenheim scores more

14%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

57'

63'

65'

72'

76'

M. Neumeier← L. Mushkolaj

77'

A. Merdan← L. Demolli

80'

Mohamad Awata← M. Fritscher

85'

F. Pieper

90+1'

Y. Albrich← A. Keereerom

90+1'

F. Pieper

90+5'

F. Pieper

FC

1860

23

37

5

17

6

35

8

36

▼

Demolli

7

Linner

21

⚽

▼

Mushkolaj

30

⚽2

▼

1

13

17

7

▼

15

4

23

22

27

11

19

▼

Pfarr

Manager: T. Strobl

57'▲F. Pieper←▼N. Pfarr

80'▲Mohamad Awata←▼M. Fritscher

FC Schweinfurt 05 substitutes

10Pieper9Awata3Scrudato6Yarbrough20Philp21Reichert33Köppel

Manager: T. Kasparetti

76'▲M. Neumeier←▼L. Mushkolaj

77'▲A. Merdan←▼L. Demolli

90+1'▲Y. Albrich←▼A. Keereerom

1860 Rosenheim substitutes

27Neumeier19Merdan13Albrich16Sattelberger1Goia

Regionalliga - Bayern: FC Schweinfurt 05 4–3 1860 Rosenheim

FC Schweinfurt 05 beat 1860 Rosenheim 4-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 30, 2019.

Goals: A. Keereerom (39', 65'), L. Mushkolaj (63'), F. Pieper (72', 85', 90+1', 90+5').

The match was played at Willy-Sachs-Stadion in Schweinfurt.

FC Schweinfurt 05 vs 1860 Rosenheim — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - Bayern: FC Schweinfurt 05 4–3 1860 Rosenheim