FC Schalke 04 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Schalke 04

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

12/15/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 17Arena AufSchalke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Schalke 0448%

×Draw23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schalke 04Expected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.34

FC Schalke 04

1.80

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.34

FC Schalke 04 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 120 away

1.93

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Schalke 04

1.93

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.25

allows per match

FC Schalke 04

1.43

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw

71%

FC Schalke 04 or SpVgg Greuther Furth

77%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

52%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

26%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

83%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

54%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

27%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

74%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

39%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

63%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.93 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.80

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more

48%

level

23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

29%

FC Schalke 04 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff