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FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
1/25/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19VELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Schalke 0448%
×Draw23%
1. FC Nürnberg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schalke 04
1.86
1. FC Nürnberg
1.40

FC Schalke 04 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

creates per match

FC Schalke 04
1.93
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38

allows per match

FC Schalke 04
1.43
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par
1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw
71%
FC Schalke 04 or 1. FC Nürnberg
77%
Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
52%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
27%
1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
84%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
55%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
28%
1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
75%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
41%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
62%
1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.93 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.38 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more
48%
level
23%
1. FC Nürnberg scores more
29%

FC Schalke 04 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Schalke 04 3–1 1. FC Nürnberg

FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at VELTINS-Arena in Gelsenkirchen.