FC Schaffhausen 0–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Schaffhausen

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

12/4/2024

Schweizer Cup · Round of 16FCS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Schaffhausen13%

×Draw16%

BSC Young Boys71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SchaffhausenExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.79

FC Schaffhausen

1.13

BSC Young Boys

2.79

BSC Young Boys creates 147% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

3.77

1.80

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

FC Schaffhausen

1.20

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

FC Schaffhausen

1.80

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schaffhausen+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schaffhausen ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

FC Schaffhausen or draw

29%

FC Schaffhausen or BSC Young Boys

84%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

87%

Winning margin

FC Schaffhausen wins by 2+

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

FC Schaffhausen 1+ goals

68%

FC Schaffhausen 2+ goals

31%

FC Schaffhausen 3+ goals

11%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

94%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

76%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

FC Schaffhausen (draw refunded)

15%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Schaffhausen at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Schaffhausen attack 1.20 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + FC Schaffhausen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

FC Schaffhausen scores more

13%

level

16%

BSC Young Boys scores more

71%

BSC Young Boys at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff