Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Saarbrücken vs Eintracht Frankfurt — DFB Pokal 2018

FC Saarbrücken
FC Saarbrückenadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
12/6/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Stadion Ludwigspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Saarbrücken31%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Saarbrücken
1.57
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.98

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Saarbrücken
1.67
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.29

allows per match

FC Saarbrücken
1.67
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.47

finishing

FC Saarbrücken+0.00on par
Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Saarbrücken ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Saarbrücken or draw
53%
FC Saarbrücken or Eintracht Frankfurt
78%
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt
69%

Winning margin

FC Saarbrücken wins by 2+
15%
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FC Saarbrücken 1+ goals
79%
FC Saarbrücken 2+ goals
46%
FC Saarbrücken 3+ goals
21%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
59%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FC Saarbrücken (draw refunded)
40%
Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Saarbrücken at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Saarbrücken attack 1.67 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.29 + FC Saarbrücken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Saarbrücken scores more
31%
level
22%
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
47%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: FC Saarbrücken 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt

FC Saarbrücken beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in DFB Pokal on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ludwigspark in Saarbrücken.