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FC Saarbrücken vs Borussia Monchengladbach — DFB Pokal 2018

FC Saarbrücken
FC Saarbrückenadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
3/12/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Quarter-finalsStadion Ludwigspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Saarbrücken19%
×Draw18%
Borussia Monchengladbach63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Saarbrücken
1.40
Borussia Monchengladbach
2.63

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Saarbrücken
1.67
Borussia Monchengladbach
3.60

allows per match

FC Saarbrücken
1.67
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.13

finishing

FC Saarbrücken+0.00on par
Borussia Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Saarbrücken ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

FC Saarbrücken or draw
37%
FC Saarbrücken or Borussia Monchengladbach
82%
Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach
81%

Winning margin

FC Saarbrücken wins by 2+
8%
Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

FC Saarbrücken 1+ goals
75%
FC Saarbrücken 2+ goals
41%
FC Saarbrücken 3+ goals
17%
Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
93%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
73%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

FC Saarbrücken (draw refunded)
23%
Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Saarbrücken at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Saarbrücken attack 1.67 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 3.60 + FC Saarbrücken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Saarbrücken scores more
19%
level
18%
Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
63%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Saarbrücken vs Borussia Monchengladbach

FC Saarbrücken beat Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 in DFB Pokal on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ludwigspark in Saarbrücken.