FC 's-Gravenzande 1–0 GVV Unitas: Result & Stats

FC 's-Gravenzande

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GVV Unitas

6/8/2024

Derde Divisie - Relegation Round · Relegation RoundJuliana-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC 's-Gravenzande54%

×Draw25%

GVV Unitas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 's-GravenzandeExpected goals in this matchGVV Unitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.90

FC 's-Gravenzande

1.60

GVV Unitas

0.90

FC 's-Gravenzande creates 78% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC 's-Gravenzande

1.20

GVV Unitas

1.00

allows per match

FC 's-Gravenzande

0.80

GVV Unitas

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 's-Gravenzande+0.00on par

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 's-Gravenzande ↓

GVV Unitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC 's-Gravenzande or draw

79%

FC 's-Gravenzande or GVV Unitas

75%

Draw or GVV Unitas

46%

Winning margin

FC 's-Gravenzande wins by 2+

29%

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC 's-Gravenzande 1+ goals

80%

FC 's-Gravenzande 2+ goals

47%

FC 's-Gravenzande 3+ goals

22%

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

59%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

23%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC 's-Gravenzande (draw refunded)

72%

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 's-Gravenzande at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 's-Gravenzande attack 1.20 + GVV Unitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

GVV Unitas attack 1.00 + FC 's-Gravenzande defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC 's-Gravenzande scores more

54%

level

25%

GVV Unitas scores more

21%

FC 's-Gravenzande at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC 's-Gravenzande will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff