FC Ryukyu 1–0 Ventforet Kofu: Result & Stats

FC Ryukyu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ventforet Kofu

4/25/2021

J2 League · Round 10Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

FC Ryukyu36%

×Draw27%

Ventforet Kofu38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RyukyuExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

FC Ryukyu

1.27

Ventforet Kofu

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 166 away

1.40

creates per match

1.29

1.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FC Ryukyu

1.40

Ventforet Kofu

1.29

allows per match

FC Ryukyu

1.33

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ryukyu+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ryukyu ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Ryukyu or draw

62%

FC Ryukyu or Ventforet Kofu

73%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

64%

Winning margin

FC Ryukyu wins by 2+

16%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Ryukyu 1+ goals

72%

FC Ryukyu 2+ goals

36%

FC Ryukyu 3+ goals

14%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

73%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

38%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)

49%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ryukyu at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ryukyu attack 1.40 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Ryukyu scores more

36%

level

27%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

38%

Ventforet Kofu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff