Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC RP vs Wolves — Suomen Cup 2018

FC RP
FC RP
FT
3 – 2
Wolves
Wolves
2/25/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundPaimion KHT Soikka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC RP33%
×Draw18%
Wolves49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC RP
2.54
Wolves
3.06

Wolves creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC RP
2.40
Wolves
2.33

allows per match

FC RP
3.80
Wolves
2.67

finishing

FC RP+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC RP ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

FC RP or draw
51%
FC RP or Wolves
82%
Draw or Wolves
67%

Winning margin

FC RP wins by 2+
19%
Wolves wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FC RP 1+ goals
92%
FC RP 2+ goals
72%
FC RP 3+ goals
46%
Wolves 1+ goals
95%
Wolves 2+ goals
80%
Wolves 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

FC RP (draw refunded)
40%
Wolves (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC RP at home — creates 2.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Wolves away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC RP attack 2.40 + Wolves defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

Wolves attack 2.33 + FC RP defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC RP scores more
33%
level
18%
Wolves scores more
49%

Wolves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FC RP 3–2 Wolves

FC RP beat Wolves 3-2 in Suomen Cup on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Paimion KHT Soikka in Paimio.