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FC RP vs ÅIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

FC RP
FC RP
FT
1 – 10
ÅIFK
ÅIFK
4/1/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundRusko TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC RP13%
×Draw13%
ÅIFK74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC RP
1.70
ÅIFK
3.90

ÅIFK creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC RP
2.40
ÅIFK
4.00

allows per match

FC RP
3.80
ÅIFK
1.00

finishing

FC RP+0.00on par
ÅIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC RP ↓

ÅIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

FC RP or draw
26%
FC RP or ÅIFK
87%
Draw or ÅIFK
87%

Winning margin

FC RP wins by 2+
6%
ÅIFK wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

FC RP 1+ goals
82%
FC RP 2+ goals
51%
FC RP 3+ goals
24%
ÅIFK 1+ goals
98%
ÅIFK 2+ goals
89%
ÅIFK 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

FC RP (draw refunded)
15%
ÅIFK (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC RP at home — creates 2.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

ÅIFK away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC RP attack 2.40 + ÅIFK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

ÅIFK attack 4.00 + FC RP defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

FC RP scores more
13%
level
13%
ÅIFK scores more
74%

ÅIFK at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "ÅIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC RP vs ÅIFK

ÅIFK beat FC RP 10-1 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Rusko TN in Rusko.