FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2–1 FC Schweinfurt 05

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Schweinfurt 05

O. C. Ugondu 34'

B. Moritz 4'

M. Dellinger 11' (pen)

7/5/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Volkspark-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt46%

×Draw21%

FC Schweinfurt 0533%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.76

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

2.11

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.76

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.62

creates per match

1.60

1.92

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.62

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.60

allows per match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.92

FC Schweinfurt 05

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt or draw

67%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt or FC Schweinfurt 05

79%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

54%

Winning margin

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins by 2+

27%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1+ goals

88%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2+ goals

62%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3+ goals

35%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

83%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

52%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (draw refunded)

58%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt attack 1.62 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.11

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.60 + FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scores more

46%

level

21%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

33%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

B. Moritz

11'

M. DellingerPenalty

34'

O. C. Ugondu

FC

Manager: F. Gerber

Manager: Victor Kleinhenz