FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2–9 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

FT

2 – 9

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

7/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt19%

×Draw17%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtExpected goals in this matchBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.81

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.49

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

2.81

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

3.71

1.92

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.62

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

3.71

allows per match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.92

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt+0.00on par

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt or draw

36%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

83%

Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

81%

Winning margin

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins by 2+

8%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1+ goals

77%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2+ goals

44%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3+ goals

19%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals

94%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals

76%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (draw refunded)

23%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 3.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt attack 1.62 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 3.71 + FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scores more

19%

level

17%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more

64%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff