Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Rostov vs Ural — Premier League 2018

FC Rostov
FC Rostov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ural
Ural
9/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Rostov48%
×Draw26%
Ural26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rostov
1.50
Ural
1.03

FC Rostov creates 46% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC Rostov
1.41
Ural
0.89

allows per match

FC Rostov
1.18
Ural
1.60

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw
74%
FC Rostov or Ural
74%
Draw or Ural
52%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+
24%
Ural wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals
78%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
44%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
19%
Ural 1+ goals
64%
Ural 2+ goals
28%
Ural 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)
65%
Ural (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Ural away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.41 + Ural defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ural attack 0.89 + FC Rostov defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Rostov scores more
48%
level
26%
Ural scores more
26%

FC Rostov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Rostov 2 – 2 Ural

FC Rostov and Ural drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Rostov Arena in Rostov-na-Donu.