FC Rostov 3–1 Khimki: Result & Stats

FC Rostov

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Khimki

I. Komarov 75', 6'

M. Osipenko 67' (pen)

R. Mirzov 88' (pen)

11/9/2024

Premier League · Round 15Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FC Rostov54%

×Draw23%

Khimki22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RostovExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.05

FC Rostov

1.78

Khimki

1.05

FC Rostov creates 70% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

1.41

creates per match

0.93

1.18

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

FC Rostov

1.41

Khimki

0.93

allows per match

FC Rostov

1.18

Khimki

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw

78%

FC Rostov or Khimki

77%

Draw or Khimki

46%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+

30%

Khimki wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals

83%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

53%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

26%

Khimki 1+ goals

65%

Khimki 2+ goals

28%

Khimki 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

71%

Khimki (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.41 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Khimki attack 0.93 + FC Rostov defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Rostov scores more

54%

level

23%

Khimki scores more

22%

FC Rostov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

62

I. Komarov

FC Rostov · M

9.7

Match Events

6'

I. Komarov↳ M. Mohebi

46'

E. Fariña← N. Anđelković

65'

Maksim OsipenkoPenalty confirmed

67'

M. OsipenkoPenalty

70'

V. Melekhin← R. Saravia

72'

R. Mirzov← K. Khosonov

75'

Anton Zabolotnyi

75'

I. Komarov↳ M. Osipenko

77'

K. Shchetinin← I. Komarov

79'

Álex Corredera← A. Rudenko

79'

B. Magomedov← L. Vera

85'

Anton ZabolotnyiPenalty confirmed

87'

I. Sadygov← A. Zabolotny

88'

A. Sutormin← A. Langovich

88'

E. Golenkov← M. Mohebi

88'

I. Zhbanov← I. Vakhania

88'

R. MirzovPenalty

90+3'

Egor Golenkov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCKhimki

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots12

5Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

14Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

334Total Passes330

238Accurate Passes234

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2