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FC Rostov vs Dinamo Samarqand — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Rostov
FC Rostov
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
1/18/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Rostov61%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Samarqand19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rostov
2.08
Dinamo Samarqand
1.06

FC Rostov creates 96% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Rostov
2.00
Dinamo Samarqand
1.33

allows per match

FC Rostov
0.80
Dinamo Samarqand
2.17

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par
Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw
81%
FC Rostov or Dinamo Samarqand
79%
Draw or Dinamo Samarqand
39%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+
37%
Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals
87%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
61%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
34%
Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)
76%
Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 2.00 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.33 + FC Rostov defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Rostov scores more
61%
level
21%
Dinamo Samarqand scores more
19%

FC Rostov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rostov vs Dinamo Samarqand

FC Rostov beat Dinamo Samarqand 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.