Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
3 – 1
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
11/7/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen51%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.03
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.46

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.44

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
2.20

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
72%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
49%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
29%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
87%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
60%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
33%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
77%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
43%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
65%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.03

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
51%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
28%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3–1 Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

FC Rielasingen-Arlen beat Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K in Rielasingen-Worblingen.