FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1–1 SGV Freiberg

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FT

1 – 1

SGV Freiberg

9/26/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 10Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen21%

×Draw20%

SGV Freiberg59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Rielasingen-ArlenExpected goals in this matchSGV Freiberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.28

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.29

SGV Freiberg

2.28

SGV Freiberg creates 77% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 26 away

1.86

creates per match

3.08

1.48

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.86

SGV Freiberg

3.08

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.48

SGV Freiberg

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

SGV Freiberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw

41%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or SGV Freiberg

80%

Draw or SGV Freiberg

79%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

8%

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

72%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

37%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

14%

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals

90%

SGV Freiberg 2+ goals

66%

SGV Freiberg 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

26%

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

21%

level

20%

SGV Freiberg scores more

59%

SGV Freiberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff