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FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Oberachern — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
CANC
16:00
Oberachern
Oberachern
4/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen46%
×Draw23%
Oberachern31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.80
Oberachern
1.43

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
Oberachern
1.38

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
Oberachern
1.74

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Oberachern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
69%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Oberachern
77%
Draw or Oberachern
54%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
25%
Oberachern wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
83%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
54%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
27%
Oberachern 1+ goals
76%
Oberachern 2+ goals
42%
Oberachern 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
60%
Oberachern (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.80

Oberachern attack 1.38 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
46%
level
23%
Oberachern scores more
31%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Rielasingen-Arlen host Oberachern

April 1, 2021: FC Rielasingen-Arlen take on Oberachern in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen host Oberachern at Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.