FC Rielasingen-Arlen 6–2 Lörrach-Brombach

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FT

6 – 2

Lörrach-Brombach

8/26/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen64%

×Draw18%

Lörrach-Brombach18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Rielasingen-ArlenExpected goals in this matchLörrach-Brombach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.24

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

2.49

Lörrach-Brombach

1.24

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 26 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

1.48

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.86

Lörrach-Brombach

1.00

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.48

Lörrach-Brombach

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Lörrach-Brombach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw

82%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Lörrach-Brombach

82%

Draw or Lörrach-Brombach

36%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

43%

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

92%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

71%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

45%

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals

71%

Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals

35%

Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

78%

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Lörrach-Brombach away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.49

Lörrach-Brombach attack 1.00 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

64%

level

18%

Lörrach-Brombach scores more

18%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff