Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
N. Malonga 60'
A. Fink 36'
10/30/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen42%
×Draw22%
FC Nottingen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.88
FC Nottingen
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
64%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or FC Nottingen
78%
Draw or FC Nottingen
58%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
23%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
85%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
56%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
29%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
82%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
51%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
54%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
42%
level
22%
FC Nottingen scores more
36%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
A. Fink
60'
N. Malonga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs FC Nottingen

FC Rielasingen-Arlen and FC Nottingen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 30, 2022.

Goals: A. Fink (36'), N. Malonga (60').

The match was played at Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2 in Rielasingen-Worblingen.