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FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
4 – 1
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
10/18/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 12Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen49%
×Draw22%
Astoria Walldorf II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.91
Astoria Walldorf II
1.42

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
71%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Astoria Walldorf II
78%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
51%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
27%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
85%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
57%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
30%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
76%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
41%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
63%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
49%
level
22%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
29%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Rielasingen-Arlen 4–1 Astoria Walldorf II

FC Rielasingen-Arlen beat Astoria Walldorf II 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K in Rielasingen-Worblingen.