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FC Renaissance vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vita Club
Vita Club
11/5/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance20%
×Draw27%
Vita Club53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Renaissance
0.78
Vita Club
1.45

Vita Club creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

creates per match

FC Renaissance
0.79
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

FC Renaissance
1.57
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw
47%
FC Renaissance or Vita Club
73%
Draw or Vita Club
80%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+
6%
Vita Club wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals
54%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
18%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
4%
Vita Club 1+ goals
77%
Vita Club 2+ goals
42%
Vita Club 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
28%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Vita Club attack 1.33 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Renaissance scores more
20%
level
27%
Vita Club scores more
53%

Vita Club at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: FC Renaissance 1–3 Vita Club

Vita Club beat FC Renaissance 3-1 in Ligue 1 on November 5, 2025.