FC Renaissance 0–5 Maniema Union: Result & Stats

FC Renaissance

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Maniema Union

4/12/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance18%

×Draw26%

Maniema Union55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchManiema Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.50

FC Renaissance

0.74

Maniema Union

1.50

Maniema Union creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

0.79

creates per match

1.42

1.57

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

FC Renaissance

0.79

Maniema Union

1.42

allows per match

FC Renaissance

1.57

Maniema Union

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

Maniema Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw

45%

FC Renaissance or Maniema Union

74%

Draw or Maniema Union

82%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+

5%

Maniema Union wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals

52%

FC Renaissance 2+ goals

17%

FC Renaissance 3+ goals

4%

Maniema Union 1+ goals

78%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

44%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)

25%

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Renaissance scores more

18%

level

26%

Maniema Union scores more

55%

Maniema Union at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff