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FC Renaissance vs JSK — Ligue 1 2019

FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JSK
JSK
10/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance27%
×Draw29%
JSK44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Renaissance
0.91
JSK
1.25

JSK creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 81 away

creates per match

FC Renaissance
0.79
JSK
0.94

allows per match

FC Renaissance
1.57
JSK
1.02

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par
JSK+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

JSK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw
56%
FC Renaissance or JSK
71%
Draw or JSK
73%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+
9%
JSK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals
60%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
23%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
6%
JSK 1+ goals
71%
JSK 2+ goals
36%
JSK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
38%
JSK (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

JSK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + JSK defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

JSK attack 0.94 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Renaissance scores more
27%
level
29%
JSK scores more
44%

JSK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: FC Renaissance 1–1 JSK

FC Renaissance and JSK drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 26, 2025.