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FC Renaissance vs Céleste — Ligue 1 2019

FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Céleste
Céleste
2/8/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance28%
×Draw29%
Céleste43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Renaissance
0.93
Céleste
1.24

Céleste creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

FC Renaissance
0.79
Céleste
0.91

allows per match

FC Renaissance
1.57
Céleste
1.07

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par
Céleste+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

Céleste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw
57%
FC Renaissance or Céleste
71%
Draw or Céleste
72%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+
10%
Céleste wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals
61%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
24%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
7%
Céleste 1+ goals
71%
Céleste 2+ goals
35%
Céleste 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
39%
Céleste (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Céleste away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + Céleste defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Céleste attack 0.91 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Renaissance scores more
28%
level
29%
Céleste scores more
43%

Céleste at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Céleste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: FC Renaissance 0–5 Céleste

Céleste beat FC Renaissance 5-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2026.