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FC Renaissance vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
AWD
3 – 0
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
3/21/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance41%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Renaissance
1.38
Bukavu Dawa
1.19

FC Renaissance creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

FC Renaissance
0.79
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

FC Renaissance
1.57
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw
68%
FC Renaissance or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
59%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+
19%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals
75%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
40%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
16%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
70%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
33%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
56%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Renaissance scores more
41%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
32%

FC Renaissance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Renaissance face Bukavu Dawa (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with FC Renaissance hosting Bukavu Dawa. Match starts March 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.