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FC Rangers vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

FC Rangers
FC Rangers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
3/15/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Rangers31%
×Draw30%
Unisport Bafang39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rangers
0.96
Unisport Bafang
1.11

Unisport Bafang creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Rangers
0.86
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

FC Rangers
1.18
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

FC Rangers+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rangers ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Rangers or draw
61%
FC Rangers or Unisport Bafang
70%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
69%

Winning margin

FC Rangers wins by 2+
11%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Rangers 1+ goals
62%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
25%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
7%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
67%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
30%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Rangers (draw refunded)
44%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rangers at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rangers attack 0.86 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + FC Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Rangers scores more
31%
level
30%
Unisport Bafang scores more
39%

Unisport Bafang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: FC Rangers 1–1 Unisport Bafang

FC Rangers and Unisport Bafang drew 1-1 in Elite Two on March 15, 2023.