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FC Rangers vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

FC Rangers
FC Rangers
CANC
00:00
Matelots
Matelots
7/3/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Rangers59%
×Draw23%
Matelots19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rangers
1.84
Matelots
0.93

FC Rangers creates 98% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Rangers
0.86
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

FC Rangers
1.18
Matelots
2.83

finishing

FC Rangers+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rangers ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Rangers or draw
81%
FC Rangers or Matelots
77%
Draw or Matelots
41%

Winning margin

FC Rangers wins by 2+
34%
Matelots wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Rangers 1+ goals
84%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
55%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
28%
Matelots 1+ goals
61%
Matelots 2+ goals
24%
Matelots 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Rangers (draw refunded)
76%
Matelots (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rangers at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rangers attack 0.86 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Matelots attack 0.67 + FC Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Rangers scores more
59%
level
23%
Matelots scores more
19%

FC Rangers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Rangers face Matelots (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with FC Rangers hosting Matelots. Match starts July 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.