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FC Rangers vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

FC Rangers
FC Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
4/12/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Rangers46%
×Draw26%
Foncha ST28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rangers
1.49
Foncha ST
1.11

FC Rangers creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 50 away

creates per match

FC Rangers
0.86
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

FC Rangers
1.18
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

FC Rangers+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rangers ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Rangers or draw
72%
FC Rangers or Foncha ST
74%
Draw or Foncha ST
54%

Winning margin

FC Rangers wins by 2+
23%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Rangers 1+ goals
77%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
44%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
19%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
67%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
30%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Rangers (draw refunded)
62%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rangers at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rangers attack 0.86 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + FC Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Rangers scores more
46%
level
26%
Foncha ST scores more
28%

FC Rangers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rangers vs Foncha ST

FC Rangers beat Foncha ST 1-0 in Elite Two on April 12, 2023.