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FC Praha W vs Sparta Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

FC Praha W
FC Praha W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Sparta Praha W
Sparta Praha W
3/9/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 11TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Praha W6%
×Draw9%
Sparta Praha W85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Praha W
0.96
Sparta Praha W
3.73

Sparta Praha W creates 289% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

creates per match

FC Praha W
1.05
Sparta Praha W
3.82

allows per match

FC Praha W
3.65
Sparta Praha W
0.87

finishing

FC Praha W+0.00on par
Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Praha W ↓

Sparta Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

FC Praha W or draw
15%
FC Praha W or Sparta Praha W
91%
Draw or Sparta Praha W
94%

Winning margin

FC Praha W wins by 2+
2%
Sparta Praha W wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

FC Praha W 1+ goals
62%
FC Praha W 2+ goals
25%
FC Praha W 3+ goals
7%
Sparta Praha W 1+ goals
97%
Sparta Praha W 2+ goals
88%
Sparta Praha W 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

FC Praha W (draw refunded)
6%
Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Praha W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

Sparta Praha W away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Praha W attack 1.05 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sparta Praha W attack 3.82 + FC Praha W defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

FC Praha W scores more
6%
level
9%
Sparta Praha W scores more
85%

Sparta Praha W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: FC Praha W 0–6 Sparta Praha W

Sparta Praha W beat FC Praha W 6-0 in 1. Liga Women on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.