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FC Praha W vs Slovan Liberec W — 1. Liga Women 2020

FC Praha W
FC Praha W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec W
Slovan Liberec W
10/13/20241. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 8Areál Aritmy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Praha W22%
×Draw18%
Slovan Liberec W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Praha W
1.58
Slovan Liberec W
2.66

Slovan Liberec W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

creates per match

FC Praha W
1.05
Slovan Liberec W
1.67

allows per match

FC Praha W
3.65
Slovan Liberec W
2.12

finishing

FC Praha W+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Praha W ↓

Slovan Liberec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

FC Praha W or draw
40%
FC Praha W or Slovan Liberec W
82%
Draw or Slovan Liberec W
78%

Winning margin

FC Praha W wins by 2+
10%
Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

FC Praha W 1+ goals
79%
FC Praha W 2+ goals
47%
FC Praha W 3+ goals
21%
Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals
93%
Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals
74%
Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

FC Praha W (draw refunded)
27%
Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Praha W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

Slovan Liberec W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Praha W attack 1.05 + Slovan Liberec W defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.58

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.67 + FC Praha W defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Praha W scores more
22%
level
18%
Slovan Liberec W scores more
60%

Slovan Liberec W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: FC Praha W 1–4 Slovan Liberec W

Slovan Liberec W beat FC Praha W 4-1 in 1. Liga Women on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy in Praha.