FC Praha W 3–3 Horní Heršpice W: Result & Stats

FC Praha W

FT

3 – 3

Horní Heršpice W

10/6/2024

1. Liga Women · Round 7Stadion Prosek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Praha W36%

×Draw20%

Horní Heršpice W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Praha WExpected goals in this matchHorní Heršpice W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.23

FC Praha W

2.01

Horní Heršpice W

2.23

Horní Heršpice W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

1.05

creates per match

0.82

3.65

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

FC Praha W

1.05

Horní Heršpice W

0.82

allows per match

FC Praha W

3.65

Horní Heršpice W

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Praha W+0.00on par

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Praha W ↓

Horní Heršpice W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

FC Praha W or draw

56%

FC Praha W or Horní Heršpice W

80%

Draw or Horní Heršpice W

64%

Winning margin

FC Praha W wins by 2+

19%

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FC Praha W 1+ goals

87%

FC Praha W 2+ goals

59%

FC Praha W 3+ goals

32%

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals

89%

Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals

65%

Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

FC Praha W (draw refunded)

45%

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Praha W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

Horní Heršpice W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Praha W attack 1.05 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.01

Horní Heršpice W attack 0.82 + FC Praha W defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Praha W scores more

36%

level

20%

Horní Heršpice W scores more

44%

Horní Heršpice W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff