FC Porto 3–1 Naval 1893: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Naval 1893

Hulk 54', 45'

R. Falcao 44'

K. Gomis 88' (pen)

1/16/2011

Primeira Liga · Round 16Estádio Do Dragão (Porto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Porto73%

×Draw17%

Naval 189311%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchNaval 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.78

FC Porto

2.38

Naval 1893

0.78

FC Porto creates 205% more chances

Season form · 252 home / 10 away

2.46

creates per match

1.00

0.55

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

FC Porto

2.46

Naval 1893

1.00

allows per match

FC Porto

0.55

Naval 1893

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

Naval 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Naval 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

89%

FC Porto or Naval 1893

83%

Draw or Naval 1893

27%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

50%

Naval 1893 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

91%

FC Porto 2+ goals

68%

FC Porto 3+ goals

42%

Naval 1893 1+ goals

54%

Naval 1893 2+ goals

18%

Naval 1893 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

87%

Naval 1893 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.55 · 252 matches

Naval 1893 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.46 + Naval 1893 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.38

Naval 1893 attack 1.00 + FC Porto defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FC Porto scores more

73%

level

17%

Naval 1893 scores more

11%

FC Porto at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

R. Falcao

45'

Hulk

46'

Michel Simplicio← N. Godemèche

46'

João Pedro← A. Hauw

54'

Hulk

65'

J. Rodríguez← Silvestre Varela

68'

Giuliano← Fábio Júnior

73'

Fernando← F. Belluschi

83'

M. González← R. Falcao

88'

K. GomisPenalty

FC

Naval

17

4

6

13

26

⚽

Gomis

25

▼

Godemèche

15

▼

5

77

11

28

▼

1

13

21

14

30

7

▼

Belluschi

8

Moutinho

6

Guarín

17

▼

Varela

9

⚽

▼

Falcao

12

⚽2

Hulk

65'▲J. Rodríguez←▼Silvestre Varela

73'▲Fernando←▼F. Belluschi

83'▲M. González←▼R. Falcao

FC Porto substitutes

19Rodríguez25Fernando11González31Kieszek4Maicon15Rafael28Micael

46'▲Michel Simplicio←▼N. Godemèche

46'▲João Pedro←▼A. Hauw

68'▲Giuliano←▼Fábio Júnior

Naval 1893 substitutes

9Simplicio20Pedro30Giuliano24Bruno45Camora91Conceição16Godinho