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FC Porto vs Lazio — UEFA Europa League 2018

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
2/17/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offsEstádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Porto57%
×Draw23%
Lazio20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.85
Lazio
1.01

FC Porto creates 83% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Porto
1.83
Lazio
0.93

allows per match

FC Porto
1.08
Lazio
1.86

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
80%
FC Porto or Lazio
77%
Draw or Lazio
43%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
33%
Lazio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
84%
FC Porto 2+ goals
55%
FC Porto 3+ goals
28%
Lazio 1+ goals
64%
Lazio 2+ goals
27%
Lazio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
74%
Lazio (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 1.83 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lazio attack 0.93 + FC Porto defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Porto scores more
57%
level
23%
Lazio scores more
20%

FC Porto at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Porto 2 – 1 Lazio

FC Porto beat Lazio 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.