FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda — UEFA Europa League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
FC Porto53%
FK Crvena Zvezda23%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Porto creates 66% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Porto ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Porto at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 6 matches
FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.35 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Porto attack 2.03 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.69
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.22 + FC Porto defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
FC Porto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Lyon
Aston Villa
FC Midtjylland
Real BetisFC Porto
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
AS Roma
Genk
Bologna
VfB Stuttgart
Ferencvarosi TC
Nottingham Forest
PlzenFK Crvena Zvezda
Celta Vigo
PAOK
Lille
Fenerbahçe
Panathinaikos
Celtic
Ludogorets
Dinamo Zagreb
Brann
BSC Young Boys
Sturm Graz
FCSB
GO Ahead Eagles
Feyenoord
FC Basel 1893
Red Bull Salzburg
Rangers
Nice
Utrecht
Malmo FF
Maccabi Tel AvivIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Porto host FK Crvena Zvezda on Thursday, 2 October 2025 at 19:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Europa League: FC Porto 2–1 FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Porto beat FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 2, 2025.
Goals: William Gomes (8' pen), V. Kostov (32'), R. Mora (89').
FC Porto controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.