FC Porto 2–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

BSC Young Boys

Tiquinho 29', 7'

J. Nsamé 15' (pen)

9/19/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Porto49%

×Draw24%

BSC Young Boys26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.15

FC Porto

1.67

BSC Young Boys

1.15

FC Porto creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.21

1.08

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Porto

1.83

BSC Young Boys

1.21

allows per match

FC Porto

1.08

BSC Young Boys

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

74%

FC Porto or BSC Young Boys

76%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

51%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

26%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

81%

FC Porto 2+ goals

50%

FC Porto 3+ goals

23%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

68%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

32%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

65%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 1.83 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

BSC Young Boys attack 1.21 + FC Porto defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Porto scores more

49%

level

24%

BSC Young Boys scores more

26%

FC Porto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Tiquinho

FC Porto · F

8.0

Match Events

7'

Tiquinho↳ L. Díaz

9'

Nikolas Burgy

15'

J. NsaméPenalty

29'

Tiquinho↳ J. Corona

52'

Iván Marcano

61'

G. Hoarau← J. Nsamé

66'

Romário Baró← L. Díaz

69'

M. Aebischer← V. Sierro

70'

Wilson Manafá← M. Marega

73'

G. Gaudino← C. Fassnacht

81'

Fábio Silva← Tiquinho

90'

Otávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBSC

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots5

5Corners3

17Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots5

6On Target3

2Off Target1

1Blocked1

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Total Passes375

309Accurate Passes274

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls20

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2