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FC Porto vs Belenenses — Primeira Liga 2018

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
7/5/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 30Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Porto67%
×Draw21%
Belenenses12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.90
Belenenses
0.67

FC Porto creates 184% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.40
Belenenses
0.72

allows per match

FC Porto
0.61
Belenenses
1.41

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
88%
FC Porto or Belenenses
79%
Draw or Belenenses
33%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
40%
Belenenses wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
85%
FC Porto 2+ goals
56%
FC Porto 3+ goals
29%
Belenenses 1+ goals
49%
Belenenses 2+ goals
15%
Belenenses 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
84%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.61 · 136 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.40 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Belenenses attack 0.72 + FC Porto defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Porto scores more
67%
level
21%
Belenenses scores more
12%

FC Porto at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Porto vs Belenenses

FC Porto beat Belenenses 5-0 in Primeira Liga on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.