FC Porto 1–0 AC Milan: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

L. Díaz 65'

10/19/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Porto44%

×Draw26%

AC Milan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

FC Porto

1.45

AC Milan

1.16

FC Porto creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FC Porto

1.50

AC Milan

1.00

allows per match

FC Porto

1.31

AC Milan

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

70%

FC Porto or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

56%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

21%

AC Milan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

77%

FC Porto 2+ goals

42%

FC Porto 3+ goals

18%

AC Milan 1+ goals

69%

AC Milan 2+ goals

32%

AC Milan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

59%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 1.50 + AC Milan defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

AC Milan attack 1.00 + FC Porto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Porto scores more

44%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

30%

FC Porto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Díaz

FC Porto · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

16'

20'

38'

46'

58'

A. Romagnoli← F. Tomori

58'

Z. Ibrahimović← O. Giroud

58'

P. Kalulu← F. Ballo

65'

L. Díaz↳ M. Taremi

66'

T. Bakayoko← S. Tonali

67'

J. Corona← Evanilson

67'

Vitinha← Sérgio Oliveira

81'

Pierre Kalulu

82'

D. Maldini← R. Krunić

84'

Toni Martínez← M. Taremi

87'

Zlatan Ibrahimović

90'

Rafael Leão

90+1'

M. Grujić← Otávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAC

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots4

7Corners1

14Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots4

2On Target1

11Off Target2

7Blocked1

15Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

394Total Passes357

298Accurate Passes274

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3