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FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

FC Porto B
FC Porto B
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/1/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 4Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Porto B37%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Porto B
1.44
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

FC Porto B
1.23
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

FC Porto B+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto B ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto B or draw
63%
FC Porto B or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
63%

Winning margin

FC Porto B wins by 2+
16%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Porto B 1+ goals
72%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
37%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
14%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
73%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
37%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Porto B (draw refunded)
50%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto B at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto B attack 1.44 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + FC Porto B defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Porto B scores more
37%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
37%

FC Porto B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Porto B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Porto B vs União de Leiria

FC Porto B and União de Leiria drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes in Vila Nova de Gaia.